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Vol. 9 No. 2 (2020): SPECIAL ISSUE OF SCIENCE, 2020

Bifurcation Analysis of Newcastle Disease Eco-epidemiological Model in the Presence of Vaccination: A Case of the Backyard Chicken

https://doi.org/10.56279/jhss.v9i2.52
furaha chuma
Mwanga
Dar es Salaam University College of Education University of Dar es Salaam

Corresponding Author(s) : furaha chuma

furaha.chuma@duce.ac.tz

Journal of Humanities & Social Science (JHSS), Vol. 9 No. 2 (2020): SPECIAL ISSUE OF SCIENCE, 2020

Abstract

Newcastle is an infectious disease caused by the avian paramyxomovirus-1. It occurs
most frequently as a disease of Avians (e.g., chicken, ducks, pigeons, guinea fowls and
other wild birds) that acquire viruses from infected Avians or a contaminated
environment. In this paper, we present a deterministic eco-epidemiological model for
Newcastle disease transmission in backyard chicken population in the presence of
vaccination as a control measure to study the nature of the equilibrium points. The
analytical and numerical methods were rigorously presented. Mathematical analysis of
the equilibrium point revealed that the model exhibits forward bifurcation. The analysis
show that a disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable for effective
reproduction number ???????? < 1, and unstable when ???????? > 1. On the other hand, the
endemic equilibrium point is stable when ???????? < 1, and unstable otherwise. Furthermore,
the study revealed that increasing the vaccination rate leads to an increase in protective
immunity against Newcastle disease, and hence reduces the devastating effect of the
disease in a chicken population. The paper advises that stakeholders in backyard
chicken growers invest on intervention that ensures that effective reproduction number
is below a unit for successful control of the Newcastle disease.

Keywords

bifurcation Newcastle disease eco-epidemiological model backyard chicken vaccination 2000 MR Subject Classification: 92B05, 92D30, 93A30
Bifurcation Analysis of Newcastle Disease Eco-epidemiological Model in the Presence of Vaccination: A Case of the Backyard Chicken. (2020). Journal of Humanities & Social Science (JHSS), 9(2). https://doi.org/10.56279/jhss.v9i2.52
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Author Biography

Mwanga, Dar es Salaam University College of Education University of Dar es Salaam




How to Cite

Bifurcation Analysis of Newcastle Disease Eco-epidemiological Model in the Presence of Vaccination: A Case of the Backyard Chicken. (2020). Journal of Humanities & Social Science (JHSS), 9(2). https://doi.org/10.56279/jhss.v9i2.52
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