Model Fitting and Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Control Strategies in the Threatened Wildebeest-Lion Prey-Predator System in the Serengeti Ecosystem
Corresponding Author(s) : thadei sagamiko
Journal of Humanities & Social Science (JHSS),
##issue.vol## 10 ##issue.no## 4 (2021)
##article.abstract##
In this paper, a wildebeest-lion prey-predator model for the Serengeti ecosystem was adopted from a previous publication. The threats to the model system were poaching, retaliatory killings, and droughts. The proposed threat control strategies for these threats were anti-poaching patrol to mitigate poaching, construction of strong bomas to reduce retaliatory killings, and construction of dams to mitigate the impact of droughts. Data on the lion population density in the Serengeti ecosystem were used to fit the model by using the maximum likelihood method. The impact of different control strategies for a period of five years was analysed using the incremental costeffectiveness ratio (ICER). An analysis of the dynamical behaviour of the adopted model was carried out. Results indicated that the model fitted well the data and the construction of dams using the ICER was the most cost-effective strategy. Nevertheless, at the implementation level, the management may decide to adopt either of the two programs.
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